Sales Up, Prices Down? - 2012 Ulster County NY Real Estate Market Report
As we approach the end of the month and the end of the year, I thought I'd take some time to see how the market is really shaking out here in Ulster County, NY. Of course there will be some additional sales in the last few weeks of December, but for the most part, I think there is enough data here for the year 2012 that we can poke around and see where things will most likely end up. Plus, I think this little analysis will provide some context as buyers and sellers plan out their strategy heading into 2013. So let me share with you some of the stats I just pulled and what I think they mean. If you're planning to buy or sell in Ulster County over the next 3-6 months, let's talk! We can go over these numbers town by town depending on where you are, or want to be.
The Ulster County NY real estate market, in my humble opinion, is beginning to turn around and stabilize. Let's look at the numbers so far from January 1st to today, December 14th, 2012 and compare them to last year, 2011. Keep in mind I'm pulling sales of JUST single family residential homes. No commercial, no multi-family units.
- 2011 Sales =828
- 2012 Sales = 912
- 2011 Average Days on Market = 187
- 2012 Average Days on Market = 202
What I see here is interesting. Sales are relatively strong so far in 2012 and significantly higher in numbers than in 2011. Again, we still have another 2 weeks left in 2012, but with the holidays and New Year's we typically see lower monthly sales numbers compared to other months and I think for obvious reasons.
What's interesting are the average days on the market. This proves the point that the longer homes sit on the market, the less a seller gets. The longer they linger the higher the hit to sellers at the closing table.
Below we see further evidence when looking at the price stats.
- 2011 Average Sale Price = $253,195
- 2012 Average " " = $226,984
- 2011 Median Sale Price = $201,900
- 2012 Median " " = $195,000
If these numbers hold up by end of December, we will see a pretty significant drop in home values in 2012. So what's the deal? How are sales so strong but values still declining?
Here's what we know:
- The economy is still weak
- Interest rates are VERY low
- Unemployment locally is still not good
- Overall uncertainty is still high
- Overall confidence is low, although improving
- Fiscal cliff?????
Need I say more? Silver lining? Well, I think the strong sales numbers suggest there is. I think we'll see increased consumer confidence this spring and I think buyers feel better about taking advantage of the historic low interest rates. I think sellers should feel relatively better about putting their home on the market since it looks like we could be gaining momentum heading into 2013. Now that we have our President elected for the next 4 years I see the financial markets choosing a more defined and less volatile direction.
I'm sure hoping businesses begin to hire but the looming coming tax hikes could stall the economy again. There's always someone worrying about Europe and China right so let's throw them in the mix as potential threats to our recovery. I know much of this is not so local but it's the reality of our global economy. Political unrest in the Middle East might very well impact, at least indirectly, the local real estate market in the Hudson Valley. Crazy, right?
Anyway, those are the numbers so far. Nothing too technical just some basic early numbers for everyone to chew on as year's end approaches. Even though prices will probably be down again this year, I do think 2013 could be the tipping point year when we see an increase in value, even if just a tiny one. Tax time will be here before you know it so take some time now and prepare for that possible purchase or sale come 1st quarter of next year. Now might be a great time to trade up or downsize depending on your situation.
I'm here for you if you have any questions and if you want to give me a ring to chat more I can be reached directly on my cell phone at (845) 380-3394 or shoot me an email if easier at firstname.lastname@example.org